TotalEnergies Sees Hormuz Oil Disruptions Accelerating Electric Vehicle Adoption

Disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could accelerate the shift towards electric vehicles and alternative fuels, according to TotalEnergies' Energy Outlook 2026, published on 2 November.

The French energy company says higher geopolitical risks and uncertainty over oil supplies have coincided with faster electric vehicle adoption in several major markets, particularly Asia, Latin America, Europe and parts of Africa.

Electric vehicle sales have gained momentum since the second quarter of 2026, while governments in several regions have increased mandatory biofuel blending requirements as they seek to reduce dependence on conventional petroleum products.

Aurélien Hamelle, TotalEnergies' President for Strategy and Sustainability, highlighted the faster uptake of low-carbon technologies between the second quarter of 2025 and the same period in 2026.

However, the company has not revised its long-term energy projections, arguing that it remains too early to determine whether the recent acceleration in electric vehicle sales and alternative fuel adoption will continue.

Oil demand expected to peak in the 2030s

Despite the growing electric vehicle market, TotalEnergies expects global oil consumption to remain supported by sectors where replacing petroleum products remains difficult.

Aviation and petrochemicals are expected to sustain demand, while a recovery in consumption could follow once energy prices stabilise.

Under its current trends scenario, global demand for petroleum products will continue increasing before reaching a peak in the 2030s and entering a gradual decline. This represents a change from the company's previous outlook, which anticipated demand growth through 2040.

Natural gas, meanwhile, is expected to retain a significant position in the global energy mix. TotalEnergies projects worldwide gas demand will increase by 12.5% between 2025 and 2035, reaching 4,780 billion cubic metres.

Electricity consumption is also expected to expand considerably. The company forecasts global demand will rise from 31,900 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025 to 59,300 TWh by 2050, almost doubling over the period.

Energy transition faces geopolitical challenges

TotalEnergies' outlook examines three possible energy pathways: a current trends scenario, a faster energy transition and a pathway designed to keep global warming below 2°C.

The company warns that achieving the more ambitious climate pathway will require stronger international cooperation, particularly as geopolitical tensions complicate energy trade and investment decisions.

The International Energy Agency has raised similar concerns about geopolitical fragmentation and its potential to disrupt energy supply chains and undermine energy security.

The latest outlook places the Strait of Hormuz disruptions alongside longer-term changes in energy consumption, with oil demand approaching a projected peak even as natural gas and electricity consumption continue to grow.