This December, expect petrol prices to rise while diesel prices to fall

It seems those December road trips will become more costly as the price of petrol rises. While this is unfortunate for those who drive petrol-powered vehicles, it appears that those who drive diesel vehicles will be spared.

According to the most recent data released by the Central Energy Fund on November 14, there is currently an under-recovery for petrol, which has averaged R1.14 for 95 Unleaded and R1.03 for 93 Unleaded for the month. On the plus side, the most recent daily data show smaller under-recoveries in the region of 50 cents for the two grades of gasoline, owing primarily to a stronger rand. This means that if current trends continue, the increase will most likely be between 50 and 70 cents.

On the diesel front, we’re currently seeing an over-recovery of 22 cents per litre for 500ppm, but with the most recent daily data being around R1.70 in the green, a drop of more than R1 per litre at the start of next month is certainly looking plausible. And any relief would be welcome.

Diesel prices are at an all-time high, with 500ppm currently commanding a wholesale price of R25.48, while 95 Unleaded petrol costs R22.22 at the coast and R22.87 inland, while 93 Unleaded costs R22.57.

However, regardless of where fuel prices end up in December, your road trip will be slightly more expensive than it was a year ago when a litre of 93 Unleaded cost R20.07 in the inland regions. Even if the December increase is limited to 50 cents, petrol will still be R3 more expensive than it was at the end of 2021, which means you’ll pay an extra R150 if you fill up a midsize car with 50 litres.

However, keep in mind that our December fuel price predictions are based on unaudited data, and much can change between now and the end of November when the Department of Energy announces official prices.

While international oil prices have been volatile this month, with Brent Crude trading at a high of $96 at the time of writing, a stronger South African rand could soften the blow between now and the end of the month. The local currency has risen from around R18.20 to R17.29 since the beginning of November.