Some of the previous predictions and forecasts of the impact of 5G mobile technology, on developing nations in Africa should now perhaps be viewed with some scepticism.
The popular view held by many protagonists of 5G technology held that its impact was likely to be profound with 5G – or the fifth generation of mobile communications technologies – being expected to have an even greater societal levelling effect than its predecessors.
This view was built around the potential for greater technological innovation, such as cloud, big data, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things (IoT), accelerating the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) in Africa with the potential to change and improve human lives on the continent.
According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), “5G was to change the world even more profoundly than 3G and 4G; and that it would be as revolutionary as electricity or the automobile, benefiting entire economies and entire societies”.
Rollout Timeline and Current Functioning of 5G in Africa
The hype surrounding 5G technology, promising ultra-fast speeds, low latency, and massive connectivity, began globally around 2019, but Africa’s adoption has been slower and more uneven due to infrastructure gaps, regulatory hurdles, and economic constraints.
The first commercial 5G networks in Africa launched in South Africa in 2020, led by operators like Vodacom, MTN, and Rain. Vodacom deployed 5G in major cities like Johannesburg and Cape Town using mid-band spectrum, while MTN followed suit in urban centres.
By 2022, Nigeria joined with MTN and Airtel launching services in Lagos and Abuja after a spectrum auction in late 2021. Kenya saw Safaricom’s initial rollout in Nairobi in 2022, followed by Tanzania (Vodacom), Zambia (MTN), Mauritius (Mauritius Telecom), and Angola (Unitel) in the same year.
Progress and Adoption in Africa Slow
Progress accelerated modestly in 2023-2024. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) led with 11 new 5G standalone (SA) deployments in 2023, though most early networks were non-standalone (NSA), relying on 4G infrastructure for faster rollout. Countries like Senegal (Orange Mobile), Botswana (Orange), and Jordan (though not African, highlighting regional operator trends) expanded NSA networks.
By mid-2024, Somalia’s Somtel, Telesom, and Hormuud Telecom launched 5G, marking entry into fragile markets. Ethiopia’s Ethio Telecom ramped up 4G/5G in 2024-2025, adding millions of users and boosting profits by 80% through coverage expansion.
As of August 2025, 5G is functioning in about 30 African countries, primarily in urban areas, but coverage remains limited. South Africa leads with Vodacom at 52% population coverage and MTN at 45%, focusing on fixed wireless access (FWA) for broadband.
Nigeria has over 1,000 sites but adoption is below 3% (fewer than 4 million users), stalled since 2022. Kenya, Tanzania, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) see patchy urban rollout via partnerships like Airtel Africa and Vodacom’s infrastructure-sharing deal in August 2025, aimed at accelerating 4G/5G in underserved regions.
Ghana’s rollout, initially planned for January 2025, missed deadlines and remains uncertain under the Next Generation Infrastructure Company (NGIC), with targets slashed from 4,400 to 50 sites. Morocco is investing $8 billion for 85% coverage by 2030, emphasizing fibre expansion. Overall, SSA’s 5G penetration is 1.4% in 2024, with global coverage at 55% but Africa lagging due to geo-tagging scarcity and rural focus on 4G. Data traffic is projected to quintuple by 2030, from 4 to 20 exabytes, driven by urban demand.
Promised Benefits of 5G for Developing Markets in Africa
5G was touted as a transformative force for Africa’s developing economies, where over 60% of the population lacks reliable broadband. Key promises included speeds up to 100 times faster than 4G, latency under 1ms, and support for a million devices per square kilometre—enabling IoT, AI, and edge computing.
For markets like those in SSA, this meant bridging the digital divide, fostering innovation, and boosting GDP. A World Bank study estimated a 10% broadband increase could raise GDP by 1% in developing countries.
Sector-specific benefits were highlighted: In agriculture (a backbone for 60% of Africans), 5G-enabled precision farming via drones and sensors could optimize yields and reduce waste. Healthcare promised telemedicine for remote areas, reducing urban-rural disparities. Education could leverage VR/AR for interactive learning, while manufacturing and extractives benefited from smart factories and real-time monitoring.
Smart cities were envisioned with optimized traffic, waste management, and energy use. Economically, 5G was projected to add $26 billion to Africa’s GDP by 2030, creating jobs in retail, finance, and MSMEs.
For small businesses, enhanced connectivity via FWA could enable e-commerce and mobile money, with Telebirr in Ethiopia reaching 54.8 million users. Socially, it aimed to empower youth (Africa’s median age is 19) through gaming, education, and entrepreneurship, accelerating the Southern African Development Community’s digital agenda.
Have These Benefits Been Achieved? If Not, Why?
Achievements are partial and urban-centric. In South Africa, 5G FWA has improved broadband for households, supporting remote work and education during post-COVID recovery. Nigeria’s MTN reports enterprise use in oil and manufacturing, while Ethiopia’s rollout boosted mobile money adoption.
Orange’s expansions in Senegal and Botswana have enabled basic IoT in agriculture. Overall, 5G has contributed to a 6% economic impact from mobile tech in SSA by 2030 projections, with early wins in digital services.
However, broad benefits remain unachieved. Adoption is stuck at 1-3% in key markets like Nigeria due to high 5G device costs (e.g., smartphones at 45.9% penetration but premium pricing).
Infrastructure challenges, including power shortages and rural fibre gaps, limit rollout, with only 30% of SSA using 4G in 2023, delaying 5G’s foundation. Policy bottlenecks, like high spectrum fees and monopolistic models (e.g., Ghana’s NGIC blocking MTN’s 1,000+ sites), hinder progress.
The African Telecommunications Union (ATU) identifies five barriers: device affordability, limited use cases, infrastructure deficits, regulatory delays, and socio-economic diversity. Currency fluctuations and competition exacerbate issues, as seen in Airtel Africa’s hedging needs. Rural areas, home to 60% of Africans, see negligible benefits, perpetuating the digital divide.
Future Realistic Projections
Projections are optimistic: Ericsson forecasts 180 million 5G subscriptions in SSA by 2029, up from 11 million in 2023. Omdia predicts 25% penetration by 2029, with 4G/5G at 80% combined. GSMA sees 5G at 20% of connections by 2030, adding $11 billion economically.
FWA subscriptions could hit 4 million by 2028, focusing on households and MSMEs. Initiatives like Morocco’s $8B plan, Rwanda’s $150M AI investments, and infrastructure sharing (Airtel-Vodacom) signal growth.
These are still realistic if challenges are addressed. Infrastructure sharing and policy reforms (e.g., lower spectrum costs) could accelerate rollout, as in recent deals. Rising smartphone adoption (45%+) and youth demographics support demand.
However, without affordable devices and rural focus, projections risk overstatement—ATU reports emphasize inclusive strategies. Bold moves like enterprise focus and AI integration (e.g., Rain’s 5.5G in South Africa) could make them achievable, but macro risks like inflation may temper growth.
Overall, while the original 5G Network hype was clearly overstated, with better policy and targeted investments, SSA could potentially still realize 5G’s innate speed and connectivity potential by 2030.
Investment Requirement for 5G roll Out in SSA
Achieving meaningful 5G penetration and its associated benefits in Africa by 2030, such as 20-22% of mobile connections being 5G, contributing $26 billion to GDP, and enabling sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and retail, requires substantial infrastructure investment. This includes spectrum acquisition, base stations, fibre backhaul, cell site densification, and supporting technologies like edge computing.
The most comprehensive estimate comes from the Broadband Commission’s Digital Infrastructure Moonshot for Africa, which projects that approximately $100 billion is needed to achieve universal broadband connectivity across the continent by 2030.
This figure encompasses the build-out of 250,000 new towers, extensive fibre optic networks (at least 250,000 km), and upgrades to support 4G and 5G, with mobile operators expected to cover 80-90% of the cost through capital expenditures (capex).
The goal aligns with GSMA projections for 5G to reach 180-226 million subscriptions in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) alone, driving economic growth. Without this level of investment, rural coverage gaps and the digital divide would persist, limiting 5G to urban areas.
Promised or Committed Investments:
Around 79 telecom operators across Africa have committed to 5G investments as of 2024, with notable pledges including:
- Morocco’s $8-8.9 billion plan for nationwide 5G rollout by 2030, focusing on fibre and 85% coverage.
- AXIAN Telecom’s $100 million from the European Investment Bank (EIB) in 2025 for mobile broadband expansion in Madagascar and Tanzania, including 5G elements.
- Broader commitments via partnerships, such as Airtel Africa and Vodacom’s infrastructure-sharing deals, potentially unlocking $5-10 billion in shared capex savings for 4G/5G. GSMA reports indicate ongoing annual commitments of $10-15 billion through 2030 to meet connectivity targets.
In total, promised investments (beyond what’s already spent or budgeted for) are around $40-60 billion through 2030, per operator forecasts and government plans, but this is fragmented and dependent on regulatory support. Funding gaps remain, with around $100 billion required to make a meaningful difference, with many countries now seeking public-private partnerships to bridge the difference.
