What's next in the South African president's cash-in-sofa scandal?

‘We can assure South Africans that they have a head of state that is firmly focused on the task at hand,’ his spokesman Vincent Magwenya said.

A scandal that has put South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s grip on power to the test and roiled the country’s bond and currency markets has yet to be resolved.

Ramaphosa, 70, considered stepping down last week after an advisory panel slammed his handling of the theft of cash stuffed into a sofa at his game farm. Later, the president reversed his position, filed a lawsuit challenging the panel’s findings, and is now running for a second term as leader of the ruling African National Congress.

“We can assure South Africans that they have a head of state that is firmly focused on the task at hand,” his spokesman Vincent Magwenya said in an interview with broadcaster Newszroom Afrika on Wednesday. “He committed no crime. At no point in time did the president violate his oath of office or violate the constitution.”

The following are the key upcoming developments to keep an eye on:

Report of the ANC Integrity Committee

The ANC’s internal integrity committee has conducted its own investigation into Ramaphosa’s behaviour, and the party’s National Executive Committee will consider its findings at a meeting on December 9. It is unclear when the decision-making body will make a decision on them.

Individuals facing serious allegations may be recommended to step down by the integrity panel, but those who believe they have been treated unfairly may request that the matter be referred to the NEC for a final decision.

Parliamentary debate

On December 13, the National Assembly will debate the findings of the advisory panel led by former Chief Justice Sandile Ngcobo and decide whether to institute impeachment proceedings against Ramaphosa.

The president does not have universal support within the ANC. Some of its legislators may defy a NEC order to reject the report and vote with the opposition to establish a parliamentary panel to conduct a new investigation, though an open ballot may serve as a deterrent. Impeaching the president would require the support of two-thirds of the legislature.

ANC elections

The ruling party will hold its annual elective conference in Johannesburg from December 16 to 20. Ramaphosa received the most nominations for the top job from ANC branches, making him the favourite to keep the job. It’s unclear how badly the scandal has harmed his campaign, but no other candidates appear to have a serious chance of unseating him.

A survey of 3,200 registered voters conducted by the Social Research Foundation in July and released two days before the panel’s report found that if he left the party, support for the ANC could fall to between 30% and 40%. The next national election in South Africa is scheduled for 2024.

The police are investigating

The Hawks, a special police investigation unit, is also investigating the 2020 farm robbery. If Ramaphosa is charged with a crime, he must resign from the ANC.

According to Godfrey Lebeya, the unit’s head, the Hawks have taken 68 statements from witnesses and are continuing their investigations. He did not say when the process is expected to be completed.