What to expect from Ramaphosa's State of the Nation Address today

On Thursday, President Cyril Ramaphosa will make his annual State of the Nation Address (SONA) (9 February).

The State of the Nation Address (SONA) is an important opportunity for the public to learn about the government’s plans and priorities for the next year. With South Africa experiencing record load shedding and cash-strapped customers struggling to make ends meet in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis, all eyes are on the president to provide answers.

The speech is expected to emphasise challenges and outline measures to support development activities in the coming fiscal year.

According to indications, the president will prioritise the ongoing electrical problem, widespread crime, suffering customers, jobs, and further social aid.

Micheal Currin, acting director general of government communications, stated that the forthcoming SONA will be one of the most crucial ever.

“Firstly, we do find ourselves in a global context of very low economic growth. I hope that South Africans, generally (and) business and labour particularly, understand that at this SONA, we have to make interventions to bring about economic growth,” said Currin.

“Secondly, it’s a watershed moment because there are many issues that we are conscious of. We are conscious of the constraints on energy; conscious of the rampant criminal activity and other challenges (and) we have to make decisive interventions on that,” he said.

He stated that this year’s SONA will be a “wake-up call” to public workers, in response to popular demand for them to be better and fulfil their responsibilities as publicly elected authorities.

Energy crisis

The country’s energy issue will most certainly be at the forefront of the address, as it was in SONA 2022.

The presidency recently issued a six-month report on the execution of the National Energy Action Plan, which was begun by the National Energy Crisis Committee (NECOM); nonetheless, the briefing concentrated on the plan’s short-term developments.

The plan’s long-term goal is to eliminate load shedding entirely and ensure energy security by adding new generating capacity to the system; speculation about this is predicted.

The governing party supported the concept of designating the Eskom situation a national calamity at a recent ANC strategy meeting on January 30.

The president stated that work is being done inside the government to determine if the legislative prerequisites for a national state of disaster have been completed and what particular actions the government may be authorised to take.

“A national state of disaster will enable us to have the instruments necessary to fully implement the challenges that our nation faces,” he said at the time. If a state of calamity is proclaimed, it is largely assumed that Ramaphosa would make the announcement during his address.

South Africans and companies will also be waiting for mention of the ANC secretary general Fikile Mbalula’s suggested ’emergency package’ of answers to the situation.

In response to the issue, it is also envisaged that other measures, such as rooftop solar deployment and other regulatory reforms, will be implemented.

Employment and  Economy

South Africa’s economic development prospects have dipped as a result of protracted load shedding, as the government grapples with internal inflationary pressures on top of interest rate hikes.

Operation Vulindlela, a joint effort of the presidency and the National Treasury, was established in October 2020 to speed the implementation of structural changes to stimulate economic development; an update on progress is planned.

The president is under pressure to demonstrate that South Africa’s economy can still thrive despite the problems, and will most likely focus on new projects launched and further government investment in infrastructure development to reflect this route.

In addition, he is expected to address the country’s unacceptably high unemployment rate. The president will probably cite the measures initiated in response to the Covid-19 outbreak, which he previously stated filled over 800,000 positions; yet, he will be hard forced to spin or dismiss the country’s high rates of youth unemployment and discouraged job searchers.

Cosatu, the union organisation, said it wants the president to put aside talk and promises and offer a comprehensive programme with clear execution benchmarks and timetables to solve these challenges.

Crime

Corruption is one of South Africans’ major concerns. Several corruption-related cases were filed in the country’s courts the previous year, with some convictions obtained.

“This as multi-disciplinary units, which bring together a range of law enforcement agencies, are identifying more implicated individuals and entities and preparing cases against them.”

The president will also be pressed to address the problem of high-profile individuals participating in state plunder. It is expected that progress on programmes such as the National Anti-Corruption Strategy 2020-2030 would be disclosed.

Outa, a civil action group, anticipates the president will announce significant support to strengthen the criminal justice system and institutions hollowed out by state capture, as well as action to implement the State Capture Commission’s recommendations to combat corruption and organised crime syndicates.

It also wants the president to provide greatly expanded protection and assistance for whistleblowers, in response to threats and even murder of individuals who have exposed corrupt activities.

Grants

Ramaphosa announced the resumption of the Special Covid-19 Social Relief of Distress (SRD) award in July 2021, which was scheduled to continue until the end of March 2024. The president is anticipated to speak about the same or additional social aid tomorrow.

It is set at R350 and aids jobless citizens, the majority of whom lost their employment when the epidemic struck.

The award was announced as a temporary measure in May 2020, but it has been renewed multiple times since then. The government stated in October 2022 that the SRD grant will be extended to the end of March 2024.

Cabinet reshuffle

The president is generally expected to announce changes to his executive staff during his speech, but political insiders have been sending contradictory signals.

With multiple vacancies and fresh resignations generating clear holes that must be addressed, Ramaphosa has no choice but to reshuffle his cabinet.

The issue has now become one of time. According to sources, the president was planning to announce the adjustments at his address this week; however, other signs suggest that he would prefer to wait a few weeks after the address to make the changes.

Current transport minister Fikile Mbalula is taking on the full-time position of ANC secretary general; deputy president David Mabuza has confirmed his resignation; the Department of Public Service and Administration remains without a permanent minister; and several of Ramaphosa’s most vocal political opponents and detractors – who actively tried to bury him in December 2022 – remain on the executive.

There is also pressure on the president to address the most obvious flaws in his team, with energy minister Gwede Mantashe and public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan remaining in control of Eskom and other failed SOEs.

According to Outa, Ramapohosa is expected to announce a cabinet overhaul, “with the removal of obstructionist incompetence and the appointment of competent leaders who place South Africa’s interests ahead of their own.”

Disruptions

South Africans may anticipate the EFF and other parties to interrupt proceedings, as has been the case with SONAs for the previous decade.

The EFF has already stated that it will interrupt proceedings, while other political parties have stated that the president must confront the Phala Phala farm problem.