There will be a cabinet reshuffle coming up

Following the outcome of the ANC’s 55th elective conference, President Cyril Ramaphosa will have to replace his government in the coming weeks.

Fikile Mbalula, the Transport Minister, has been elected as the party’s secretary-general, a full-time job in Luthuli House.

Mbalula told the media after the election that he would retire as transport minister as a result, although he did not specify when this would happen.

When Mbalula resigns, Ramaphosa will have two major voids in his cabinet, with the job of minister of public service and administration remaining empty after previous minister Ayanda Dlodlo was appointed as an Executive Director on the board of the World Bank in Washington, DC earlier this year.

Since then, Minister of Employment and Labour Thulas Nxesi has served as acting minister for the department.

Transportation and Public Service and Administration are two critical areas that cannot be left unfilled for long. This was proved in recent months when public employees went on – and continue to go on – countrywide strikes to protest the government’s unilateral 3% salary increase.

South Africa’s roads, railroads, and licencing authorities are all in disarray, necessitating intense concentration and attention from the transport department.

While Ramaphosa has not said how he plans to replace his cabinet, his stunning win at the ANC conference may give him the courage to fire ministers who publicly opposed his campaign for a second term and, in some cases, actively worked against him to destabilise him politically.

This includes Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, whose political aspirations have put her at odds with Ramaphosa since January 2022, when she began speaking out against Ramaphosa and his leadership.

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Minister of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs (Cogta), is another minister who has actively spoken out against the president. She was the first ANC member to break ranks during the Phala Phala vote in parliament last week, voting to adopt the report that could have resulted in Ramaphosa’s impeachment.

Dlamini-Zuma justified her choice, but she still risks disciplinary punishment within the party for defying orders. When asked if she would quit as a cabinet minister, she said she would decide after the electoral conference, but that she would not hold it against Ramaphosa if he fired her, which is his prerogative.

According to political commentators, while the cabinet serves at the president’s pleasure, there is still a lot of politicking going on behind the scenes, and Ramaphosa may find it difficult to act without the approval of the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC).

Sisulu did not vote and may face disciplinary punishment as well. It is up to the new NEC to take additional disciplinary action against members.

Ramaphosa’s close victory in 2017 and a profoundly split NEC allowed many of his political opponents and detractors to enter government. With the new NEC yet to be constituted, it is unclear how much clout the president has to act.