Eskom intends to implement stage 8 load shedding

Eskom says it is revising its documents and timetables that govern load shedding stages in order to prepare for stage 8 if the nation reaches it.

The power company stated that the review process is now continuing and that it is meeting with regulators and industry to look at possible phases of load shedding and contingencies for stage 8 – but that this is not expected at this time.

According to Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter, the power provider is working hard to restore generating capacity and intends to stop stage 6 load shedding by the weekend.

On Monday (20 February), the CEO stated that Eskom presently has 23,877 MW of power offline, which is about half of the entire installed capacity.

This is attributable to 3,766 MW of scheduled maintenance, 12,018 MW of full load losses, 5,993 MW of partial losses, and 2,100 MW of outside losses owing to coal supply concerns.

He stated that the current evening peak is expected to be 27,782 MW, resulting in a shortage of around 5,834 MW, necessitating ongoing stage 6 load shedding.

De Ruyter stated that the potential of stage 8 load shedding is always there, given the grid’s intrinsic instability and only having 2,000 MW to manoeuvre around system breakdowns.

He stated that load shedding is used to prevent the system from a total blackout and collapse, and that the national operator has told him that a total blackout is quite unlikely. This is mostly due to load reduction during peak demand periods.

Nonetheless, stage 8 load shedding is included in the contingency plan. Van Ruyter pledged that the country will not go any farther.

When will Stage 6 come to an end

According to De Ruyter, the power company expects to return 3,000 MW to the system on Monday, and 2,000 MW each on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, which should help stabilise the grid.

This implies that stage 6 load shedding will likely continue until at least the Wednesday peak, after which it will be dropped to stage 4 and, ideally, stage 3 by the weekend.

According to the CEO, the Open Cycle Gast Turbines are now being overworked, necessitating stage 6 load shedding.

He also mentioned that there were some diesel limitations over the weekend, which caused problems, but that they had been remedied. He also stated that the finance concerns around diesel had been handled with the support of National Treasury.

The current shortage is the result of a number of concerns.

The Kusile Power Station currently has three units operational. They have been rendered inoperable owing to a slurry buildup in unit 1’s flue, which collapsed.

Units 2 and 3 both fell and were damaged to the point that they were no longer functioning, according to de Ruyter. This has resulted in the loss of 2,160 MW.

Moreover, Unit 1 of the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station is on a 20-year outage to extend its life. The project is on schedule to be finished by the end of June. Following that, Unit 2 will be decommissioned in August.

However, the peak winter months in July and August will have full supply from the station. 928 MW is offline from the maintenance.

The remaining outages are caused by crucial equipment breakdowns. Kusile Unit 5 experienced an air gas heater fire; while some energy has been recovered, it will not be synchronised until July. This plant has taken 700MW offline.

Medupi Unit 4 is only planned to reopen in September 2024, following a hydrogen explosion.

Van Ruyter further said that load loss owing to high ambient temperatures (i.e., weather) affecting the cooling system totals 600MW. These losses are frequently ignored.

According to the CEO, there are over 5,000 MW that are just not structurally available.