As we enter 2026, the global business landscape is set for intensified disruptions, building on the turbulence of 2025. Trade wars, economic slowdowns in major powers, and geopolitical maneuvering have created a volatile environment where supply chains fracture and alliances shift rapidly.
The Trump administration’s aggressive tariff regime, pushing average U.S. tariff rates toward 17%, has already reshaped global trade flows, inflating costs and pressuring exporters worldwide. Forecasts suggest further escalations could reduce after-tax incomes and fuel inflation into 2026, with risks of broader supply shocks and policy uncertainty.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grapples with a persistent property downturn and subdued consumer spending, despite proactive stimulus measures announced for 2026 aiming for around 4.5-5% growth. Global growth is expected to moderate to around 3%, resilient yet fragile amid these tensions.
Global Pivots Impacting Africa
These dynamics are acutely felt in Africa, where major powers vie for influence through strategic investments. China’s longstanding dominance in critical minerals, through mining and refining in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zimbabwe, faces competition as its domestic slowdown curbs demand. The U.S., under “America First,” advances projects like the Lobito Corridor, a multi-billion-dollar rail linking Angola to DRC and Zambia for faster mineral exports, backed by continued financing into 2026. Russia maintains a military footprint in unstable regions while courting economic ties, as seen in Botswana’s plans to open a Moscow embassy and invite Russian investment in rare earths and diamonds.
This great-power competition underscores Africa’s vulnerability. The continent’s rich deposits of cobalt, lithium, and copper make it indispensable for green energy transitions, yet it remains largely a raw exporter. Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP growth is projected at 3.8-4.1% for 2026 and outpacing the global average but from a low base, with benefits unevenly distributed.
Political instability in Africa exacerbates risks: 2025 saw successful coups in Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau, plus attempts elsewhere, often met with muted African Union (AU) responses, signalling declining continental authority. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), while advancing with coordinated efforts in countries like Nigeria, remains more aspirational than operational, hampered by regulatory gaps and infrastructure deficits.
For Africa’s business diaspora, the entrepreneurs, investors, and professionals spanning the continent and abroad, this landscape presents both risk and promise. Vulnerability to external shocks is real: tariff-induced trade rerouting could sideline African exporters, while stretched Chinese finances and U.S. selectivity might slow mineral deals. Yet, Africa’s value as a mineral powerhouse buys leverage.
The question is whether the continent can transcend beyond raw extraction to forge an indelible stake in global business?
Africans must “Play” to their Strengths
Africa’s greatest assets lie in its inherent strengths, often overlooked amid geopolitical noise.
Adaptability:
African businesses and communities have long navigated wide-spread volatility, from economic crises to political shifts, with resilience unmatched in more rigid markets like the EU or UK. This agility fosters innovation in uncertain times, allowing rapid pivots that established players struggle to match.
Demographics:
Africa boasts the world’s youngest population, with over 60% under 25 and a projected surge driving global youth numbers. By 2030, young Africans could comprise 42% of global youth, offering a massive labor force and consumer market. This “youth bulge” fuels optimism, with groundswells challenging authoritarianism and demanding accountability, creating fertile ground for entrepreneurial ecosystems.
Strategic Positioning:
Africa’s central geography, flanked by Atlantic and Indian Oceans, positions it as a potential logistics hub in a de-globalising world. As trade routes fragment, proximity to emerging markets in Asia, Europe, and the Americas, coupled with abundant renewables like solar and wind can offer key advantages in sustainable supply chains.
Energy Generation:
Africa possesses great opportunity to create an expansive energy grid that will power industrialisation, rail and export product manufacturing. With enormous potential for solar, hydro-electric, gas and coal driven generation why is the continent lagging the rest of the globe in energy production? bottlenecks that prevent investments must be removed and central control of energy grids must be removed to grow capacity and reduce energy prices.
Doubling energy output over the next decade (to approximately 2,000 TWh by 2036) through solar, hydroelectric, and natural gas sources would have a transformative, overwhelmingly positive impact on economic growth. Africa’s renewable potential is immense: it holds 60% of the world’s best solar resources, vast untapped hydropower (only a fraction currently exploited), and significant natural gas reserves that can serve as a transition fuel.
African Opportunities Exist in Abundance
True opportunities emerge beyond minerals, where Africa can dictate terms. Fintech and the digital economy stand out: The continent leads in mobile money, with digital payments projected to hit $1.5 trillion by 2030. In 2026, trends like embedded finance, AI-driven services, and cross-border payments will accelerate, enabling diaspora-led startups to scale solutions for unbanked populations. Africa’s mobile-first leapfrogging bypasses legacy infrastructure, creating exportable models in remittances, e-commerce, and inclusive finance.
Renewable energy and green value chains offer another frontier. With vast solar potential and critical minerals at home, Africa can move upstream via processing lithium for batteries or manufacturing components rather than exporting raw ore. Strategies like the African Green Minerals Strategy emphasize local beneficiation for jobs and revenue.
Agriculture, creative industries, and tourism also beckon. Value addition in agro-processing, fueled by AfCFTA’s potential, could boost intra-African trade. The diaspora plays a pivotal role here: Remittances exceed foreign aid, and networks in tech hubs like Silicon Valley or London can channel investment into African ventures.
To make this “their own playing field,” Africa and its diaspora must prioritize intra-continental integration and self-reliance. Accelerating AfCFTA implementation—harmonising regulations and infrastructure, would create a unified market rivalling others. Diaspora businesses can advocate for favorable terms in mineral deals, insisting on technology transfer and local equity. Investing in education and skills for the youth dividend will spawn homegrown tech giants, competing with U.S. and Chinese dominance in AI and manufacturing.
Africa Must be a Player not a Pawn
In 2026’s disruptions, Africa need not remain a pawn. By leveraging adaptability, youth energy, digital prowess, and strategic assets, the continent can shift from vulnerability to agency. The diaspora, bridging global networks and continental roots, is key to this transformation, building stakes that outsiders cannot easily dislodge. The year ahead may be chaotic, but it is precisely in such flux that Africa can redefine global rules on its terms.
