South Africa’s solar photovoltaic (PV) sector has emerged as a cornerstone of the nation’s energy transition, driven by chronic electricity shortages, escalating tariffs, and a mushrooming demand for reliable, decentralised power.
The “2025 South African Solar Industry Survey Report” by Jaltech, released today, in collaboration with industry stakeholders like EE Business Intelligence and insights from experts such as Chris Yelland, represents the largest user survey of its kind.
Conducted in late 2024 and updated in 2025, the study gathered responses from 288 solar installers and Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) firms, with over 2,000 businesses and homeowners indirectly represented through installer data.
This comprehensive analysis reveals a market maturing rapidly, with adoption rates surging due to prohibitive electricity costs, robust growth statistics, optimistic future projections, and a clear cost-benefit rationale favouring solar.
Adoption Rates: Widespread but Sector-Specific Uptake
Adoption of solar PV in South Africa has accelerated dramatically, transitioning from niche applications to mainstream energy solutions. The survey indicates that over 70% of installers operate across multiple sectors, reflecting broad-based penetration rather than siloed growth.
The commercial and industrial (C&I) sector, combined with residential users, dominates, accounting for 43% of installer focus. Pure C&I installations represent 13%, while 14% of firms handle a trifecta of C&I, large-scale solar/Independent Power Producers (IPPs), and residential projects. Residential adoption alone is less emphasized (under 5%), but when bundled with C&I, it underscores a hybrid market where businesses and households alike seek self-sufficiency.
Geographically, adoption is uneven but expanding. The Gauteng Province leads with 19% of solar companies, followed by the Western Cape (14%) and Mpumalanga (11%), aligning with industrial hubs and sunny climates. KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State each host 10%, while less industrialized provinces like Limpopo (8%) and North West (7%) lag.
Notably, 59% of companies span multiple provinces, facilitating nationwide rollout. This multi-provincial footprint signals that adoption barriers—such as grid access or permitting, are diminishing, with 65% of the largest recent installations under 1MW, tailored to small-to-medium users.
Electricity Costs Driving Adoption
A pivotal driver is electricity costs, now the overwhelming rationale for adoption. Survey respondents and ancillary data from EE Business Intelligence highlight that Eskom’s tariff hikes, averaging 12-15% annually, have rendered grid power unaffordable for many.
Chris Yelland, managing director of EE Business Intelligence, notes in related commentary that “electricity cost is now the major reason for adoption,” with 79% of surveyed businesses citing load-shedding and price volatility as triggers. Households and SMEs report payback periods shortening to 3-5 years due to solar’s immediate savings, up from 7-10 years pre-2022. This cost imperative has propelled adoption rates: residential installations grew 150% year-on-year in 2023-2024, per installer logs, while C&I uptake hit 200% in high-tariff zones like Gauteng.
Growth Statistics: Explosive Expansion in Small-Scale Projects
The survey paints a picture of hyper-growth, with the solar industry adding capacity at unprecedented rates. In 2023, 38% of companies installed under 1MW of PV, and 36% managed 1-5MW, totalling 74% in sub-5MW brackets—demonstrating an expanded market favouring accessible, modular systems.
Larger projects (over 5MW) comprised just 6% of portfolios, often tied to IPPs, but even these saw a 25% volume increase. Overall, South Africa’s installed solar capacity ballooned from 2.5GW in 2022 to over 6GW by mid-2025, with rooftop PV accounting for 70% of new additions.
Installer demographics further illustrate growth: 41% of participants have operated for 1-5 years, 34% for 5-10 years, and 25% for over a decade. This influx of newcomers, many bootstrapped by post-COVID financing, has diversified supply chains, with preferred PV brands like JA Solar (24% market share) and battery leaders like Freedom Won dominating. Operations and maintenance (O&M) services, offered by 88% of firms, have become a growth engine: 45% view O&M as a key deal-closer, and 45% as a revenue stream, with internal handling by 64% of companies.
Funding challenges minimally impede growth, with 59% reporting fewer than 25% of deals lost to financing issues. This resilience stems from innovative models like power purchase agreements (PPAs) and green bonds, which have unlocked R50 billion in investments since 2023. Yelland emphasizes that solar’s modularity enables rapid scaling, contrasting Eskom’s sluggish grid expansions. Growth is also evident in service diversification: 53% price O&M via fixed annual fees for predictability, while 21% tie it to capital expenditure (Capex) percentages, fostering long-term contracts.
Future Projections: Scaling to 20GW by 2030
Projections from the survey and EE Business Intelligence forecasts signal a solar-dominated future, with installed capacity potentially reaching 20GW by 2030—tripling current levels. Small-to-medium projects will drive 80% of this, per 74% of respondents focusing on sub-5MW scales. Multi-sector expansion (over 70% of firms) positions residential and C&I as growth vectors, with residential projected to add 5GW alone, fueled by tariff shocks.
Yelland’s analysis projects a 25-30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2028, contingent on policy reforms like streamlined SSEG registrations. By 2030, solar could offset 40% of peak demand, reducing load-shedding by 50 stages annually. Challenges include grid integration, with 134GW of renewable bids awaiting approval. However opportunities abound in battery storage, with 60% of installers bundling PV with lithium-ion systems for hybrid resilience. The survey anticipates O&M as a R10 billion sub-sector by 2027, with outsourcing rising to 50% for specialized tasks like remote monitoring (13% currently outsourced).
Cost Analysis: Solar’s Economic Edge Over Grid Power
Cost dynamics overwhelmingly favor solar, with electricity prices as the linchpin. Eskom’s average tariff of R1.50-R2.00/kWh (post-2025 hikes) contrasts sharply with solar’s levelized cost of energy (LCOE) at R0.50-R0.80/kWh for new installations— a 60-70% savings. Payback periods average 3.5 years for 5kW residential systems (R80,000-R120,000 Capex), dropping to 2.5 years with incentives like tax rebates.
O&M costs, a proxy for lifecycle economics, average 1.50% of system value annually (50% of respondents), equating to R1,200-R1,800/year for a R120,000 setup. Fixed-fee models (53%) ensure budgeting stability, while ad-hoc (26%) and Capex-based (21%) options suit variable needs. Internal O&M (64%) minimizes markups, but outsourcing for corrective maintenance (28%) or cleaning (17%) adds 10-20% premiums. Total ownership costs over 25 years: solar at R0.60/kWh vs. grid’s R2.50/kWh cumulative, yielding R500,000+ savings per household.
Yelland stresses that “electricity cost escalation has made solar not just viable, but essential,” with 79% of users reporting 40-60% bill reductions post-installation. Subsidies and falling panel prices (down 20% in 2024) amplify this, though supply chain risks (e.g., import duties) could add 5-10% to upfront costs.
The survey illuminates a solar revolution in South Africa, where adoption rates exceed 70% multi-sector penetration, growth stats show 150-200% yearly surges in key segments, and projections eye 20GW by 2030. Cost analyses confirm electricity affordability as the catalyst, with LCOE savings and short paybacks tipping the scales. As Yelland articulates, solar isn’t a luxury—it’s the least-cost path to energy security amid Eskom’s woes. Policymakers must prioritize grid reforms to unlock this potential, ensuring equitable access for all provinces. This data-driven optimism positions South Africa as Africa’s solar leader, blending economic prudence with sustainability.
