The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents one of the most ambitious economic integration projects in history, aiming to create a single market for goods and services across 54 African nations, encompassing over 1.3 billion people and a combined GDP of approximately $3.4 trillion. Signed in March 2018 in Kigali, Rwanda, the agreement entered into force in May 2019 after the required ratifications, with official trading commencing on January 1, 2021. As we mark the fifth anniversary in early 2026, the AfCFTA stands as a beacon of hope for transforming Africa’s fragmented economies into a cohesive powerhouse, potentially boosting intra-African trade by over 50% and lifting millions out of poverty through enhanced economic diversification and job creation.
The initiative’s core objective is to dismantle trade barriers, including tariffs on 97% of goods over a 5- to 13-year period, while fostering protocols on services, digital trade, and investment. Proponents argue it could add $450 billion to Africa’s income by 2035, addressing longstanding issues like reliance on external markets and commodity exports. However, progress has been uneven, hampered by implementation challenges amid global disruptions. Despite this, tangible wins have emerged, indicating the potential for accelerated growth if hurdles are addressed.
Progress and Success Stories: Building Momentum Amid Slow Growth
In the five years since trading began, the AfCFTA has achieved notable milestones, expanding membership to 49 states and operationalizing key frameworks. The AfCFTA Secretariat reports that states have submitted and gained approval for tariff schedules and rules of origin, essential for preferential trade.
The Guided Trade Initiative (GTI), launched in 2022, has enabled 39 countries to test commercial trading under the agreement, facilitating product exchanges, business matchmaking, and capacity-building. Additionally, the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) has been rolled out to reduce currency conversion costs and promote transactions in local currencies, addressing a major friction in cross-border payments.
Success stories have showcased the agreement’s potential.
Nigeria, for instance, became the first member to complete and publish a five-year implementation review in July 2025, highlighting advances in digital trade and services liberalization. The country also ratified the AfCFTA Protocol on Digital Trade and established dedicated export corridors, positioning itself as a leader in continental integration. Another highlight is the launch of the Africa Trade Engine (ATE) in November 2025, a private-sector joint venture between TRT Manufacturing and TradeDepot. ATE provides end-to-end support for product development, manufacturing, distribution, and marketing, aiming to localize production and close Africa’s $50 billion annual import gap in consumer goods. By leveraging digital infrastructure and logistics, ATE serves as a practical accelerator for AfCFTA goals, enabling brands to produce and trade within the continent more efficiently.
Quantitatively, intra-African trade has shown modest growth, reaching an estimated $220.3 billion in 2024, a 12.4% increase from 2023. This represents about 15-18% of total African exports, up from pre-AfCFTA levels but still far below Europe’s 70% or Asia’s 60% mark. Sectors like agriculture, minerals, and services have benefited, with Southern Africa leading regional trade flows. Initiatives such as the Intra-African Trade Fair and the designation of 2023 as the “Year of AfCFTA” have further catalyzed awareness and participation. These wins demonstrate that, while slow, the AfCFTA is fostering a shift toward self-reliant economic structures.
Persistent Hurdles: What’s Blocking Expansion?
Despite these advancements, intra-African trade growth remains sluggish, constrained by multifaceted barriers. Infrastructure deficits top the list: Poor roads, railways, and ports, hike logistics costs, with three-quarters of goods transported by inefficient road networks. Non-tariff barriers (NTBs), including cumbersome customs procedures, varying standards, and border delays, add further friction, sometimes doubling trade expenses.
Policy lags exacerbate the issue. Many countries have yet to fully harmonize regulations or ratify protocols, leading to uneven implementation. Economic mismanagement, corruption, and internal political tensions deter investment and trade flows. High production costs, driven by energy shortages and limited access to finance, make African goods less competitive regionally, particularly when compared with goods manufactured in China. Moreover, the continent’s economies often lack complementarity, exporting similar raw commodities while importing manufactured goods from outside Africa.
Currency volatility and payment systems remain problematic, though PAPSS aims to mitigate this. Security risks in conflict-prone areas and regulatory fragmentation across Regional Economic Communities (RECs) like ECOWAS and EAC further impede progress. Informal trade, which could inflate official figures by up to 50% in some countries, highlights data gaps but also underscores untapped potential if formalized.
The 2025 Trade Tariff Upsets: A Catalyst for Intra-African Focus?
The year 2025 brought with it significant global trade disruptions, primarily from U.S. tariffs under President Trump, which escalated the average U.S. import duty to 17-24%—the highest in over a century. These measures, targeting countries like China and the EU but spilling over to Africa, imposed levies up to 50% on exports from nations such as Lesotho and Madagascar, particularly in textiles and apparel. Compounded by the lapse of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in September 2025, which had granted duty-free access to U.S. markets, African exporters face immediate job losses and revenue shortfalls.
This upheaval could paradoxically accelerate intra-African trade by diverting focus inward. With external markets becoming costlier, countries may prioritize regional value chains, boosting demand for African-made goods. For instance, the IMF warns of GDP declines from geo-economic fragmentation, pushing Africa toward resilience via AfCFTA. However, without addressing internal barriers like policy lags, this shift risks being temporary. Uncertainty has already spiked import volatility in developing economies, underscoring the need for swift AfCFTA implementation to cushion shocks.
Historical Roots: Systemic Flaws Over Lack of Demand
Africa’s low intra-trade predates AfCFTA, rooted in colonial legacies that oriented economies outward for raw material extraction, with minimal internal linkages. Post-independence, this structure persisted, fostering commodity dependence and protectionism. Lack of infrastructure development such as rail and energy generation, political instability, and corruption compounded the issue, not mere absence of demand but systemic flaws in design and governance. The result has been slow industrialisation with African states having similar export profiles with reduced complementarity, while global ties to the likes of China, has overshadowed regional opportunities.
Looking Ahead: Overcoming Barriers for Sustainable Wins
As AfCFTA enters its next phase, accelerating implementation—through infrastructure investments, policy harmonisation, and private-sector initiatives like ATE is crucial. The 2025 tariffs may serve as a wake-up call, but true unlocking requires addressing historical and current hurdles. With concerted efforts, intra-African trade could surge, fostering inclusive growth and economic stability and sovereignty while spurring on industrialisation and manufacturing on the continent.
