The Ansarada 2026 Global Merger & Acquisition (M&A) Predictions Report, authored by Managing Director Justin Smith, aggregates insights from 26 leading dealmakers across key markets to forecast mergers and acquisitions trends amid persistent geopolitical volatility, economic uncertainty, and technological disruption.
Drawing from 2025’s resilience, highlighted by mega-deals like Blackstone’s AirTrunk acquisition and Lactalis’s Fonterra stake, the report emphasises M&A’s adaptability. Despite trade wars, inflation, and policy shifts (e.g., U.S. tariffs under Trump), the market is, according to the report, set for deliberate growth in 2026, driven by stabilising interest rates, sector-specific tailwinds, and AI integration.
The report spans APAC, New Zealand, UK/Ireland, DACH (Germany/Austria/Switzerland), Europe, Middle East & Africa, and the U.S., offering 26 targeted predictions. Globally, deal volumes are expected to rise modestly, with buyers prioritizing risk mitigation through deeper diligence, complex structures (e.g., earn-outs), and ESG/cyber due diligence.
Global Key Takeaways: Actionable Intelligence
Four overarching themes provide a roadmap for M&A practitioners:
- Market Resilience Amid Chaos: Geopolitical shocks (e.g., U.S.-China tensions) prompt pauses, but “proceeding with caution” prevails. Expect 5–10% volume growth, favoring adaptable players. For finance firms, this means ramping up scenario modeling for tariff-impacted deals.
- Interest Rate Cuts as Catalyst: Anticipated Fed/ECB easing (to 3–4% by mid-2026) will unlock liquidity, boosting valuations 10–15%. Private equity (PE) exits in held assets could surge; banks should prepare for $200–300B in dry powder deployment.
- Sector Divergence: Energy (renewables/oil & gas), tech, industrials, and defense lead, while retail/consumer lags due to cost-of-living squeezes. AI reframes valuations—assets with “AI-proof” moats command 20–30% premiums. Finance pros: Target cross-border energy/tech mandates.
- AI’s Embedded Role: From data rooms to integration, AI accelerates diligence by 30–50%, but human judgment handles negotiations. For African finance houses, adopt AI tools like Ansarada’s platform for efficiency in fragmented markets.
These themes highlight a “deliberate pace”: Deals average 6–9 months, up from 4–6 pre-2025, with 40% featuring contingent payments.
Regional Spotlights: APAC and Beyond
In APAC (led by Australia), Louisa Hine and James Nguyen (Squire Patton Boggs) predict a buyer’s market with modest growth (3–5% volume), fueled by stabilized rates and PE divestments in consumer assets. Sectors like health, tech, and professional services shine, with Australia’s weak AUD and stable politics attracting U.S./UK inflows at 8–10x EBITDA (vs. 12x in the U.S.). Andy Cloke (PwC) notes recent $30B+ deals (e.g., Santos takeover) signal momentum, urging mid-market focus.
New Zealand mirrors this, with aggregation in stable sectors. UK/Ireland eyes energy/infrastructure consolidation amid fiscal pressures. DACH and broader Europe anticipate tech/ESG-driven activity, while the U.S. (detailed in Section 9) forecasts AI-fueled mega-deals in data centers and cybersecurity.
Emphasis on Middle East & Africa: Africa’s M&A Renaissance
The report’s Middle East & Africa section (pages 56–61) is a goldmine for continental players, blending Gulf liquidity with African opportunities. Olivier Tricou (Alpen Capital, Dubai) highlights the region’s energy pivot: From oil dependency to renewables (storage, green hydrogen, carbon capture), expect $50–100B in deals. Traditional players pursue bolt-ons/JVs for “future-proofing,” with ESG commanding 15–20% valuation premiums. Cyber/digital infrastructure emerges as a “core factor,” with weak governance triggering discounts. Deal structures evolve—staged investments and earn-outs rise 25%—while AI streamlines diligence. Pipeline drivers: Sovereign liquidity, privatizations, and appetite for tech/infra/RE/hospitality/healthcare/education. Actionable: African firms in high-emission sectors must roadmap transitions to access Gulf capital; finance advisors, integrate AI for 20–30% faster virtual data rooms.
Andre Bresler (Benchmark International, Cape Town) forecasts “exceptional” African activity, with improving sentiment honing in on resilient assets (data centers, electronics/medical distributors, manufacturing). PE targets “bread-and-butter” sectors with high barriers, spurred by U.S. tariffs displacing manufacturing to low-tariff African hubs (e.g., South Africa). Asia (China/Japan) ramps physical scouting in East/South Africa, eyeing export tech from sanctions-forged industries like mining equipment. Energy transition wanes due to grid stability, but manufacturing resurgence looms. Low risk tolerance post-COVID means protracted cycles (8–12 months) and complex terms; sellers counter with pre-deal data rooms. Intelligence: South African manufacturers—leverage AGOA-like perks for U.S. rerouting; PE funds, scout mid-market ($50–200M EV) for 15–20% IRR in “old school” industrials. Avoid oversupplied solar/domestic energy plays.
Tabrez Khan (GENesis Capital Advisory, Dubai) predicts GCC mega-deals ($5–10B each) in petrochemicals/minerals/energy storage, with sovereign funds reallocating for supply security. Africa sees concentrated flows into energy/infra, financial services, and FMCG, driven by population booms. Fintech/SaaS propositions (e.g., Kenya/Nigeria models) attract cross-border buys; nascent renewables/batteries/minerals signal 2028–2029 waves. GCC liberalisation invites FDI in UAE/Saudi/Qatar data/manufacturing/cyber, with voluntary ESG leading (despite no mandates). Structures shift to KPIs/earn-outs; AI filters early diligence. For Africa: Large-population nations (Nigeria, Ethiopia) prioritize agri/FMCG; finance firms, partner Gulf SWFs for $10–20B infra mandates. SMEs: Deploy cash for bolt-ons yielding immediate cashflow.
Usable Business Intelligence for African M&A/Finance
- For African M&A intermediaries: Prioritize tariff-arbitrage plays – model U.S./Asia rerouting for 10–15% volume uplift. Build AI diligence stacks (e.g., for cyber/ESG audits) to cut costs 40%; target PE exits in consumer assets as rates fall.
- Finance sector: Gulf-Africa corridors offer $30–50B liquidity—structure JVs with earn-outs tied to KPIs for 70% close rates. Risks: Prolonged cycles breed “deal fatigue”; mitigate via phased data rooms.
- Overall, 2026 positions Africa as a diversification haven amid global flux, with energy/tech/manufacturing as anchors. Deal volume could hit around $150–200B continent-wide, a growth of 20% YoY, blending Gulf scale with local resilience.
- Stakeholders: Act now on AI/ESG to capture premiums; monitor U.S. policy for rerouting windfalls. This report’s 26 voices affirm: Uncertainty breeds opportunity—those adapting thrive.
