In part one of this series, I described the China Menace – more of why China is a menace shall be described in future editions – and in part two, I called the United States a sick superpower. In part three, this piece, I turn my attention to Africa. I had wished to discuss Africa later in the series but due to reader demands I have altered that plan – readers expressed an interest in hearing my thoughts on Africa sooner than I had anticipated. I have obliged (and hence, in this piece, I write Africa: Alone She Must Proceed).
However, before I proceed, I wish to briefly highlight the salient points readers should have taken away from parts one and two. (Also, this is not a one off piece on Africa as more is to come, and thoughts on Africa shall be interlaced with other themes I wished to talk about throughout this series – hopefully, this satisfies you the reader while staying true to my original vision).
The takeaway from part 1, COVID-19 and China’s menace: lied; continues to lie; China is a bully that sabotages efforts to fight coronavirus, and China corrupted the WHO and the WHO helped spread Xi’s propaganda. China is power hungry and a rethink of China’s position on the global stage is in order – the coronavirus crisis ought to spell the end of China’s fledgling dominance and some are already arguing “corona will be [President Xi’s] political end, sooner or later.” (If this sentiment was not clear enough, either explicitly or implicitly, in part 1, it shall become so as you read through the series).
The takeaway from part two, COVID-19: The U.S. a sick superpower, is America has failed to rise up to the challenge posed by the coronavirus and this is largely due to institutional failures. Moreover, “Big Government” and its habits of spending in non-emergency times serves as a cautionary tale – if the world’s largest economy is absolutely not capable, at most, and handicap, at least, to deal with the coronavirus crisis because of binge spending what hope is there for poorer nations. (Again, if this sentiment was not clear enough, either explicitly or implicitly, in part two, it shall become so as you read through the series).
Then, you might wonder what about Europe? (A place I have not yet discussed in this series.) Well, do not trust or count on it either. The EU is a failed political project that has failed the coronavirus test and might never fully recover. I will write more on this, and why Africa should not model itself based on the EU, later in the series.
Africa’s Path
So, here proceeds part three. I begin with an African poem by Bartholomew Arkoh Boamah Sarbah titled “Awake Mother Africa.” The poem reads:
“From above a new life descends to my love;
Riding on an angel’s back;
With glittering hamper dangling from behind
Arise from your slumber mesmeriser
Arise to a day of your maker
The day vies with the night
And life vies with death for your sake oh belle princess
From the edges of your bed;
Angels are ending the night watch
And birds sing to your awakening
Lo, the instruments sound with pleasant melodies;
To behold your beauty in the rays of the young sun
And now the world stand at your door;
Awaiting to exult the Most High for your life
As I eagerly wait for my dear
So I would bow before her and say,
Good morning Love.”
Poetry reads differently depending on the reader. However, my take on the poem is that Africa has failed its children – the nations and people of Africa, as diverse as they may be – and Africa MUST realise it’s about time it awakens from the slumber and deliver on Africa’s inherent promise. My wish is that Africa heeds the current call and rises from the coronavirus crisis stronger than before. Then again, a continent that perfected “smoke signals” and continued to harness them while the rest of the world “sailed the seas” seems a lonely hope.
Objectively speaking, Africa has several challenges. According to the World Bank, more than 416 million Africans live in extreme poverty and around 640 million people currently live without electricity in Africa – 210 million of which are in fragile and conflict-affected countries.
Moreover,“public debt levels and debt risk are rising, which might jeopardise debt sustainability in some countries; the availability of good jobs has not kept pace with the number of entrants in the labour force; fragility is costing the subcontinent a half of a percentage point of growth per year; and gender gaps persist and are keeping the continent from reaching its full growth and innovation potential.”
Pre-coronavirus, Africa was steadily making progress to cure its ails. According to the African Development Bank (ADB), Growth in 2019 stood at 3.4% but more importantly growth fundamentals were improving. In its economic outlook report, the ADB observed “growth’s fundamentals are also improving, with a gradual shift from private consumption toward investment and exports. For the first time in a decade, investment accounted for more than half the continent’s growth, with private consumption accounting for less than one third.”
Coronavirus threatens the steady progress Africa was making. The coronavirus crisis has driven sub-Saharan Africa towards its first recession in 25 years. According to the World Bank, growth in the region is projected to fall to between to -2.1% and -5.1% in 2020. The coronavirus crisis will cost sub-Saharan Africa between $37bn and $79bn in output loses and “has the potential to spark a food security crisis in Africa, with agricultural production potentially contracting between 2.6% in an optimistic scenario and up to 7% if there are trade blockages. Food imports would decline substantially (as much as 25% or as little as 13%) due to a combination of higher transaction costs and reduced domestic demand.”
Africa faces a rough road ahead and hence some commentators are arguing: “Africa won’t beat coronavirus on its own [and] the west must dig deep before it’s too late.” The truth, however, is that the west will not dig deep. Africa is dangerously behind in the race to acquire gear to help combat coronavirus and part of the reason for this is Africa is being “outbid by richer countries, and not receiving medical gear from top aid donor the United States.” Further the “Trump administration has said coronavirus aid to at-risk countries would not include key medical equipment, to meet demand at home” – American aid is “focused on water, sanitation and messaging.” And to be fair America has also donated money. For instance, as relates to Zambia, “America is contributing nearly $10m (K180m) in health assistance” and “through USAID, the U.S. government is providing more than $6m (K108m) to help prevent the spread of coronavirus through promotion of educational materials via radio, television and print media, and by strengthening laboratory and clinical systems to diagnose new cases and to treat those who get sick.” This aid is by no means adequate and in all honesty its not much of a gesture given that the United States spends that amount of money in a fraction of a second – it seems as though that aid was merely a gratuitous gesture. America has its own mess to clean up, its failed to rise to the coronavirus challenge (as it is sick) and is in no position to help.
Europe’s posture toward Africa is no better. Europe passed a “Team Europe” package of €20bn, however, that aid is to be spread across “Africa, the EU’s neighborhood – the Western Balkans, the Eastern Partner countries, the Middle East and North Africa, parts of Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean. It will focus also on the people most at risk, including children, women, the elderly, and disabled people, as well as migrants, refugees, internally displaced persons and their host communities.” Again, just like American aid, this is merely gratuitous and will not be near enough to help Africa. And like America, Europe has failed the coronavirus test and will no be able to help Africa yet alone save itself.
China sees weakness (American and European) and is attempting to rehabilitate and restore its image in Africa. China is not apologetic or acting altruistically. China understands the coronavirus could reshape global order – “China is maneuvering for international leadership as the United States falters.” Because of China the world faces worst recession since great depression – in 2020, “the global economy will contract by 3% as countries around the world shrink at the fastest pace in decades.” However, “the Chinese economy is expected to expand by just 1.2%.”
Xi has poisoned the world. China has a lot to reform before it can be trusted. A good start would be for China to forgive all debt – African debt. To be clear, this will not be enough, but it would be a welcome start. It is unlikely that China will forgive African debt, its been laying debt traps for decades – China’s posture towards Africa is an “Imperialist” one. It is my hope that Africa has learned the lessons of imperialism and just says NO to China.
Where does this all leave Africa? Well, China is a menace, power hungry, and is not going to save Africa while America is sick – and is not in a position or even willing to provide the necessary aid and Europe is a failure, that probably won’t survive the crisis and is therefore unable to come to Africa’s rescue. Africa is alone and now is the time to rise to the challenge and awaken from its slumber.
The views expressed in part three of this article are Nkosi Mfumu’s own opinions and not necessarily those of Business Tech Africa.
About the author: Zambia-based lawyer (licensed to practice in the State of Illinois) holds a BA in International Studies (with a concentration in International Relations) and is also a Juris Doctor.