Business & Tech News
Fuel Costs Dropping With the Rand Slipping:
In what will be good news and a small relief for some African states, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures both dropped 4% this morning with Brent dropping to a four-year low and below $61 per barrel, extending losses to a fifth consecutive session amid fears that U.S. tariffs might lead to a global recession and hurt demand. Fuel prices have been falling across the globe and the continent following a decline in global oil prices amid fears that the trade war would depress demand and lead to a global recession. Over the past week, African countries including Ivory Coast, Mali, Morocco, and South Africa have all announced cuts in petrol and diesel prices, with the exception being Nigeria with prices rising on 2 April as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company adjusted prices upward amid the ongoing phase out of fuel subsidies.
With a weaker dollar and lower crude prices it is likely to see fuel prices lowered again in May, however South Africa could be the exception with the local currency losing value rapidly against the dollar amidst political uncertainties in their coalition government. The Rand (ZAR) is currently at R19.79 to the US dollar at an all-time-low that is likely to wipe-out any benefit of lower crude prices and contribute towards recessionary pressures in the economy.
Indian Central Bank Cuts Repo Rate to Three Year Low:
The Reserve Bank of India cut its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6% during its April meeting, marking the second consecutive meeting with a 25-bps reduction, aligning with market consensus. This move brought borrowing costs to their lowest level since November 2022, due to easing inflation amid slowing economic growth and escalating trade tensions. Regarding the economic outlook, the central bank revised the economic growth forecast for FY2025 – 26 GDP to 6.5% from 6.7%, with a projection of 6.5% for Q1, 6.7% for Q2, 6.6% for Q3, and 6.3% for Q4. The inflation projection was also downwardly revised to 4% from 4.2%, within the RBI’s target range of 2-6%
Citrus Sector Jobs at Risk in South Africa
The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGASA) have indicated that the pending reciprocal tariffs, due to come into effect today, are likely to have a damaging impact to South Africa’s largest agricultural export. The group said the tariffs would likely make South African citrus fruits cost $4.25 more per carton for American consumers. South Africa provides citrus to the U.S. seasonal market. After Spain, South Africa is the second-biggest exporter of oranges and the world’s fourth-largest exporter of soft citrus fruits, according to statistics from the World Citrus Organization.
South Africa exports around 5%-6% of its total citrus exports to the United States, equalling around 6.5 million cartons per year, the growers’ association said. “There is immense anxiety in our communities,” said Gerrit van der Merwe, the chairman of the CGASA. The group said the tariffs were due to come into effect the same week the first citrus fruit of the South African season was being packed to be exported to the U.S. It said it was urgently calling on the South African government to prioritize negotiations with the U.S. on tariff reductions or exemptions on citrus. Estimates indicate that the impact of the tariffs could affect as many as 35 000 jobs in the Citrus Industry.
Sim Tshabalala – Interim Standard Bank CEO:
Standard Bank Group has announced the appointment of Sim Tshabalala as Interim Chief Executive of The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited (SBSA) with effect from 8 April 2025, subject to regulatory approval. Accordingly, Sim will serve in a dual capacity as Chief Executive of Standard Bank Group and SBSA, and as executive director on the boards of both companies, until such time as the boards make further announcements regarding executive succession planning. Lungisa Fuzile, the current Regional Chief Executive for the Group’s South and Central Region, has been appointed as Interim Chief Executive of Africa Regions and Offshore, also with effect from 8 April 2025, subject to regulatory approval. Lungisa will report to Sim Tshabalala and will join the Group Leadership Council (GLC).
Copper futures continued its recent decline to around $4.1 per pound in early trading today, nearing multi-month lows. The price plunge is being driven by growing concerns that an escalating trade war could trigger a global recession. US President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs came into effect today, including a hefty 104% levy on Chinese goods. Beijing recently vowed to “fight to the end” and pledged to escalate its retaliation on US exports. The lack of concrete developments on tariff negotiations also weighed on investor sentiment, although Trump indicated that he remains open to discussions with major trading partners. Copper prices were pressured further as the new US tariffs exclude copper, gold, energy, and certain critical minerals not sourced domestically, despite previous reports that the metal could be targeted within weeks.
Markets by Numbers
Currencies:
Currency markets are indicating the US Dollar trading stronger against most major currencies and currently at 1.1078 against the Euro and trading stronger against the Pound at 1.2847. The Yen is trading upwards against the Dollar, and at 144.73 to the dollar currently. The rand has lost more ground today and is trading at a close to all-time low of R19.72 to the dollar currently, after hitting R19.80 briefly this morning.
Commodities:
- Gold futures prices have gained more than 2% this morning and currently at $3042 after seeing some profit taking on gold earlier this week with gold gaining from below $3000 yesterday and again today.
- Copper prices have dropped by -15% in the past week but has started to gain some traction this morning and at 4.1496 currently.
- Silver futures prices continue to gain after positive moves yesterday and trading at 30.264 currently.
- Platinum is trading slightly higher today and at $906 currently, while Palladium prices are currently trading -7,9% lower for the week and at $878 currently.
- Brent Crude Oil prices have dropped by 18% in the last week and dropping to a four-year low and at $61.06 currently, with WTI also trading at multiple year lows at $57.85 currently.
- Cocoa futures are currently trading l-12% lower in the past week, and at $7766 per ton.
- Coffee futures prices are trending downwards, and is -11% down this week and at $341 currently.
Crypto Currencies:
- Bitcoin prices have gained over 1,5% this morning, and currently trading at $77503
- Ether prices have dropped below $1500 incurring more losses, and currently trading at $1472
- $Trumpcoin is currently trading at $7.61 currently
(All prices quoted at approximately 09H00 – Central African Time)
