The 2025 Commodity Surge: Winners and Laggards
2025 has been a banner year for commodities, propelled by geopolitical tensions, central bank gold hoarding, and the unrelenting march of the green energy transition. Precious metals have dominated this growth trajectory in 2025, with platinum and silver posting explosive gains amid safe-haven demand and industrial rebounds.
Critical minerals, essential for batteries and renewables, showed mixed results, with copper’s steady climb outpacing lithium’s slump from oversupply. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) benefited from auto catalyst demand, though palladium lagged somewhat.
Year-to-date (YTD) performance as of November 28, 2025 (Jan 1 close to current spot):
| Category | Commodity | Jan 1 Price (USD) | Nov 28 Price (USD) | YTD Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Metals | Gold | ~2,063 | ~4,180 | +102.7% |
| Silver | ~23.50 | ~51.57 | +119.4% | |
| Platinum | ~950 | ~1,550 | +63.2% | |
| Palladium | ~1,050 | ~1,435 | +36.7% | |
| Critical Minerals | Copper | ~4.20/lb | ~4.96/lb | +18.1% |
| Lithium (carbonate) | ~12,000/t | ~10,500/t | -12.5% | |
| Cobalt | ~30,000/t | ~45,000/t | +50.0% | |
| Nickel | ~16,500/t | ~16,500/t | -0.0% (flat) | |
| Rare Earths (NdPr oxide) | ~55/t | ~70/t | +27.3% | |
| PGMs | Platinum (as above) | ~950 | ~1,550 | +63.2% |
| Palladium (as above) | ~1,050 | ~1,435 | +36.7% |
Sources: LBMA, Trading Economics, IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. Prices approximate spot; YTD from Jan 1 closes.
Best-Performing Sector: Precious metals take the growth crown, with an average YTD gain of around 80%, dwarfing critical minerals, up approximately +16%, with base metals such as copper/nickel up around +9%. Silver’s 119% surge edges out gold’s iconic rally, driven by solar panel demand and inflation fears. PGMs trail slightly but shine in industrial applications.
This boom hasn’t been uniform: While global prices have soared, bringing Africa’s mining giants welcome windfalls, there has also been but a cost. Surging revenues have generally masked eroding margins from rising energy/labor costs and a “slippery” regulatory terrain, exemplified by the Barrick Mali debacle.
Africa’s Mixed Bounty: Price Gains Fuel Revenues, But Profits and Shares Lag
Africa, home to 30% of global minerals, should be the epicenter of this upcycle. Gold alone (90% of Zimbabwe’s exports, 20% of SA’s) and PGMs (SA’s 80% share) promise transformative inflows. Yet, benefits are uneven: Junior miners thrive on spot prices, but majors grapple with taxes, nationalizations, and instability. YTD commodity spikes boosted sector revenues ~25–40%, but profits dipped 5–15% due to operational hurdles, per PwC’s Mine 2025 report. Share prices? A tale of two markets—gold juniors up 50%+, diversified majors flat or down 10–20% on divestment fears.
Key Impacts on African Mining Groups
- Revenues have soared on volume and prices. Barrick Gold’s African ops (Loulo-Gounkoto in Mali, North Mara in Tanzania) saw Q3 2025 revenues jump 21% YoY to $1.1B, fuelled by gold’s rally, with a full-year projection of around +42% to $11.1B. Sibanye-Stillwater (SA PGM/gold) reported H1 revenues up 28% to R50B ($2.8B), platinum’s 63% gain offsetting nickel woes. Anglo American’s African diamond/platinum arms added a 15% revenue lift, though copper (Quellaveco, Peru ops) drove 60% of group growth.
- Profits have been a mixed bag. Gold’s margins expanded 20–30%, but input costs (diesel up 15%, wages +10%) saw gains eroded. Barrick’s adjusted EBITDA rose 18% in Q3 to $1.5B, but impairments hit net profits which were down -5%. Sibanye’s EBITDA climbed 35% to R15B in H1, yet profits fell 12% on PGM restructuring. Anglo’s underlying profits held flat at $4.5B YTD, copper’s 18% price bump countering a 9% output drop.
- Share Prices have been volatile, reflecting market tensions. Barrick (TSX:ABX) up 35% YTD to $25 CAD, buoyed by gold but dented by Mali risks. Sibanye (JSE:SSW) gained 22% to R20, PGM’s rebound aiding its growth. Anglo (LSE:AAL) down 8% to £22, with investor jitters over BHP bid collapse and Africa exposure (diamonds/PGMs representing 20% of their portfolio) outweighing coppers strength.
Africa’s haul: About $50B in mining exports YTD (up 20% YoY, AfDB data), injecting forex and improving employment growth of 1.5M direct jobs added. Gold/PGM surges added $10–15B to SA/Zimbabwe coffers. Critical minerals like cobalt (DRC’s 70% global share) spiked revenues 50% for Glencore’s Katanga, but lithium’s dip hurt Namibian explorers.
Yet, in a global minerals context, the African continent captures less than10% of total value chain. The old story of raw exports dominate the landscape, with refining and beneficiation concentrated abroad.
Navigating the Slippery Slope: The Barrick Mali Saga as Cautionary Tale
Africa’s mining allure dims under “resource nationalism.” The Barrick Gold-Mali standoff epitomizes this: In 2024, Mali’s junta (post-2021 coup) demanded 50%+ stakes in Loulo-Gounkoto (Africa’s top gold mine, $900M revenue 2024). Tensions peaked September 2025: Four Barrick execs were detained on “financial sabotage” charges by the military administration amid a $500M tax arrears claim. Operations halted briefly, costing $100M+.
Resolution was finally reached November 24, 2025 with Barrick agreeing to drop World Bank arbitration and the Mali authorities releasing staff, and dropping charges. The Deal: Mali’s stake in the mine rises to 25% (from 20%), with Barrick retaining 75% control and $200M investment pledge for local processing. “A pragmatic win,” Barrick CEO Mark Bristow called it, but it underscores risks and arbitrary audits, with forced JV hikes (e.g., Tanzania’s 16% windfall tax).
Similar tremors exist elsewhere. DRC’s cobalt royalties have been hiked up 10% (2025), Zimbabwe’s lithium bans, SA’s PGM carbon tax. These “slippery” moves, coupled with jihadist threats (Sahel mines down 15% output) deter FDI, that has seen a decline of 8% YTD to $4B (UNCTAD).
What Has Transpired: Boom Amid Barriers
In essence, 2025’s commodity tailwinds met African headwinds. Precious metals’ rally supercharged gold/PGM producers: SA’s Harmony Gold revenues up by +45%, with profits seeing a +60% surge. Critical minerals faltered with lithium’s -12% price hit Namibia’s Swan River project was also shelved. Overall, African mining capex rose 12% to $15B, but 60% foreign-led, with China/Russia filling Western voids (post-sanctions).
Share resilience: JSE mining index has seen a +18% YTD growth, vs. a global growth of +25%, as per Bloomberg. Profits buoyed dividends (Sibanye +20%), but impairments (Anglo’s loss of $1B on diamonds) signal caution.
Future Moves: Diversification or Decline?
Looking to 2026–2030, mining majors are likely to pivot from Africa’s “high-risk, low-reward” to stable havens. Anglo American, post-BHP’s failed $75B bid (scrapped November 2025), is set to double down on copper. Their $5B+ investments in Australia (Quilpie) and Canada (Peelwood), targeting 1Mtpa output by 2030. “Copper’s the future; Africa’s too volatile,” CEO Duncan Wanblad stated. BHP echoes: $10B growth pot, 70% Australia/South America.
Barrick: Africa core (40% production), but $2B capex shift to Nevada/Papua New Guinea. Sibanye: SA focus, but eyeing Aussie lithium buys.
Africa’s outlook: $20–30B FDI potential if reforms (e.g., AfCFTA mining protocols) stick, per IEA. Opportunities: DRC cobalt (50% demand growth), SA PGMs (auto EV shift). But without easing nationalism such as Mali’s 35% mining tax, will likely accelerate capital outflows. China eyes $50B in criticals; West hedges via Australia/Canada.
Final Verdict: Africa has benefited fiscally to the tune of around $60B estimated full-year exports, but structurally the landscape for mining growth lags, confining Africa’s near-future to one as a raw exporter, not value creator. To stem the exodus, governments must balance sovereignty with stability, encouraging miners to localize more, and to draw foreign investment into processing products. Otherwise, the continent risks mining’s “resource curse” reduction.
