South Africa will likely prioritize resolving its energy crisis over climate goals, risking reduced funding and export competitiveness, says industry body chief James Mackay.
Ending rolling blackouts plaguing the economy may require extending coal power, undermining decarbonization aims. But energy security is viewed as critical for growth.
The fastest fix is upgrading creaky coal plants, delaying closures potentially 3-10 years. Renewables roll out too slowly, and more transmission is needed.
The planned coal transition could jeopardize climate aid dependant on plant retirements. Also looms the threat of EU carbon tariffs as nations address emissions.
Mackay believes outages will substantially ease by end-2024. But growth in clean energy remains too slow, needing to double. Sticking to phase out commitments may require offsets.
Though messy, Mackay argues an transparent strategy balancing priorities can keep climate funding access open. The desire is to accelerate the transition as able.
With the economy battered by blackouts, South Africa seems resigned to modestly extend coal lifespans despite global emissions expectations and pending penalties.
