South Africa started 2025 with a decline in trade performance, posting a preliminary trade balance deficit of R16.4 billion in January. According to the South African Revenue Service (SARS), this deficit stemmed from exports of R149.0 billion and imports of R165.4 billion.
Key Factors Behind the Trade Imbalance
The trade performance for January 2025 represents a notable decline compared to the same period last year. In January 2024, South Africa recorded a trade deficit of only R3.7 billion. The year-on-year analysis shows that export flows increased slightly by 1.2%, from R147.2 billion in January 2024 to R149.0 billion in January 2025. However, imports grew more significantly, increasing by 9.6% from R150.9 billion to R165.4 billion.
On a month-to-month basis, January 2025 also marked a decline in exports and a significant rise in imports. Exports dropped by R10.2 billion (6.4%), from R159.2 billion in December 2024 to R149.0 billion in January. On the other hand, imports surged by R20.9 billion (14.4%), from R144.5 billion to R165.4 billion during the same period.
This deterioration in trade performance was primarily driven by declines in key export sectors. Notably, gold, vehicles (goods), and platinum group metals (PGMs) experienced reduced export flows. In contrast, the rise in imports was linked to increased demand for original equipment components, airplanes, and motor vehicle parts and accessories.
A Larger Deficit When Excluding BELN Trade
In another important revision, the preliminary trade surplus of R15.5 billion reported for December 2024 was revised down by R0.8 billion due to ongoing Vouchers of Correction (VOCs), bringing the final figure to R14.7 billion.
When excluding trade with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, and Namibia (the BELN region), South Africa’s trade with the rest of the world presented an even larger trade deficit. The preliminary deficit for January 2025 stood at R26.8 billion, driven by exports of R132.9 billion and imports of R159.7 billion. This trade deficit reflects a more concerning trend, with exports decreasing by R10.7 billion (7.5%) compared to December 2024, while imports rose by R20.4 billion (14.7%).
The cumulative trade deficit for January 2025 has widened considerably, standing at R26.8 billion, compared to a deficit of R12.8 billion during the same period in 2024.
This early setback in South Africa’s trade balance highlights the challenges the country faces in balancing exports and imports, especially given the fluctuations in global commodity prices and shifting demand patterns. As the year progresses, the trade balance will be closely monitored to assess whether these trends continue or improve.
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