The size of the Global Market compared to the Size of Manufacturing by Region
Africa has struggled to attract major automotive manufacturers with only South Africa, Morocco with any major vehicle production volume at this point and Egypt and Nigeria and Kenya as emerging manufacturing hubs. In total around 1,3 million vehicles were produced in Africa in 2024, with South Africa producing 632 000, a growth of 10% from 2023.
As a comparison, in 2024, Asia produced 47.5 million vehicles, Europe 17,3 million, North America 16 million and South America 3,2 million vehicles.
Automotive Manufacturing in Africa
South Africa leads the African Auto market with a robust industry, producing a significant share of the continent’s vehicles and exporting the bulk to global markets, particularly the EU. Morocco has also emerged as a major hub, focusing on both internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and electric vehicles (EVs) for export.
The sector is transitioning toward greener technologies, driven by global demand and local policies, though petrol and diesel vehicles still dominate the local markets and the manufacturing landscape at present. Hybrid and electric vehicle production is growing, especially in South Africa, but remains a small fraction of total output.
Production and Export Data for 2024 and 2025 Projections
The table below summarises estimated production volumes, vehicle types, and export values for 2024, with projections for 2025 based on growth rates (CAGR of 5.1% for overall automotive, 10.2% for EVs).
(Source: mordorintelligence.commordorintelligence.com)
| Country | Year | Total Production (Units) | Petrol/Diesel (Units) | Hybrid (Units) | Electric (Units) | Export Value (USD Billion) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 2024 | 632,000 | 620,000 | 10,000 | 2,000 | 12.5 |
| 2025 | 665,000 | 650,000 | 12,000 | 3,000 | 13.2 | |
| Morocco | 2024 | 535,000 | 520,000 | 12,000 | 3,000 | 9.8 |
| 2025 | 565,000 | 545,000 | 15,000 | 5,000 | 10.4 | |
| Egypt | 2024 | 100,000 | 99,000 | 500 | 500 | 1.2 |
| 2025 | 105,000 | 103,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1.3 | |
| Nigeria | 2024 | 30,000 | 29,500 | 300 | 200 | 0.3 |
| 2025 | 32,000 | 31,000 | 500 | 500 | 0.4 | |
| Kenya | 2024 | 15,000 | 14,500 | 200 | 300 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 16,000 | 15,000 | 300 | 700 | 0.2 |
Tariffs and Turmoil Underscores the need for Flexibility:
While manufacturing is a key industry in these regions, there are mounting headwinds that the industry is having to negotiate. South Africa in particular has seen several manufacturers close their manufacturing shop in the country, including Peugeot and General Motors.
Against this backdrop, those that have stayed have made big commitments including a recent upgrade to the BMW manufacturing plant in South Africa with a not insignificant 4,2 billion (ZAR) investment in upgrading their Rosslyn plant that produces the new X3 SUV range.
At a recent media briefing, Peter Van Binsbergen CEO BMW Group South Africa & Sub-Saharan Africa, spoke of the need to be able to pivot in motor vehicle manufacturing today. He spoke of their ability to move manufacturing volumes from petrol to diesel to Hybrid or EV within the same production facility without major interruptions in production.
“BMW says that’s what we’re thinking and we’re here to produce those cars, but if the customers say we want more hybrids and more diesel, more petrol, we’ll produce those instead”. “Because remember, every factory produces these vehicles on the same production line” he says.
Leading With Flexibility
In BMW’s Rosslyn plant, as an example, they can produce five diesel models, one hybrid and two petrol variants on the same production line. “We can produce what the customers want, that’s how our production system works” commented Van Binsbergen.
With international markets seeing rapid changes in trade situations, and policy shifts the only way to ensure ongoing success is to be able to pivot rapidly and be able to ensure that both supply chain and the correct vehicle type to get market access, can be achieved while still maintaining costs at a reasonable level.
An example of the uncertainties manufacturers are facing includes the changes in tariffs to a 30% charge by the US on all South African (SA) exports announced this week, that will result in SA motor exports being uneconomical in that market, as well as that the SA government that has announced that it will introduce incentives to drive new EV car manufacturing while the US is pivoting away from EV incentives.
Predictability in this type of environments is hard to do and so flexibility remains the key principle, with those who want to grow needing to ensure that flexibility in production, supply-chain and markets will be their key success factors going forward.
Fortunately the largest market for many of the exports from Africa is Europe and the potential exists to look to expand more exports within Africa and potentially the industry will need to look at new markets such as South America in the future.
Notes:
- Production Estimates: Petrol/diesel dominate due to limited EV infrastructure. Hybrid and EV volumes are estimated based on market share trends (e.g., 1.2% NEV sales in South Africa).
- Export Values: South Africa and Morocco account for ~90% of Africa’s automotive exports, driven by EU demand.
- 2025 Projections: Based on 5.1% CAGR for overall automotive market and 10.2% for EVs, with increased EV adoption due to policies like Ethiopia’s ICE import ban and South Africa’s JET plan.
- Data Gaps: Limited specific data on hybrid vs. EV production; figures are extrapolated from market trends and total production.
